Modeling future climate change

QUESTION

Introduction

The purpose of this assignment is to understand how increases in greenhouse gases (namely carbon dioxide), will influence future temperature changes. This will be accomplished using a simple climate model under different scenarios. In addition, you will be expected to discuss the potential for future impacts on your local region based on these calculations.

Assignment (total 20 marks)

Using the CO2 emission you calculated for your family(PDF)

1.Calculate the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a population of 500 million. To do this, you will need to use the per person CO2 emission you calculated for Assignment #1, then multiply this value by 500 million to obtain the amount of CO2 emission for this question. Make sure to convert this value to gigatons. What CO2 value did you compute for the population of 500 million? (1 mark)

2.Input this value in the simple climate model called a Very, Very Simple Climate Model, which can be found at http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/cli_model.html. Select the closest emission value within this model. Use a time step of 5 years. The inputs for this model can be found on the left-hand side.

3.Based on the outputs from this model, what are the CO2 concentration, CO2 emission, and temperature for the population of 500 million for the 5-year time steps? Present the values in a table for each 5-year step. (3 marks)

4.How much CO2 will be built up in the atmosphere by the year 2100? (1 marks)

5.What impact do you think these temperature and CO2 concentrations will have on your local community? (4 marks)

6.The CO2 emissions for the various IPCC scenarios are as follows: A1B  13.5 GtC, A2  29.1 GtC, B1  4.2 GtC,
and B2  10.8 GtC. Run the climate model used in Section I based on two of these scenarios using 5-year time steps.

7.Based on the outputs from this model, what are the CO2 concentrations, CO2 emissions and temperatures for the population of 500 million for the 5-year time steps? Present the values in a table for each 5-year step. (3 marks)

8.How much CO2 will be built up in the atmosphere by the year 2100? (1 marks)

9.Compare the pattern of temperatures between each scenario. Comment on when the temperatures level off (or if they dont); are the patterns similar or different between scenarios, as well as any other information you see as relevant. (4 marks)
An additional 3 marks will be given for the style of the assignment. This includes spelling, grammar, sentence and paragraph structure, as well as overall presentation.